Forecasts of Wastepaper Supply and Consumption In The United States To 1985
Keywords:Paper recycling, pulp and paper industry, forecasting, econometrics
AbstractRecycling of wastepaper is a partial solution to the solid waste management problem and a source of fibrous material in the production of paper and board products. Unlike virgin fiber, wastepaper is the result of past paper and board consumption. To consider these important facts and others affecting wastepaper supply and consumption, a model of the paper and board industry inclusive of wastepaper recycling was constructed. The results of application of this model showed that wastepaper supply and consumption can vary widely depending on the future recovery rates and utilization levels of wastepaper by the paper industry. By assuming the most optimistic wastepaper recovery and utilization increases by 1985, a domestic wastepaper supply shortfall is forecasted. However, the most likely future wastepaper utilization scenario indicates a surplus of wastepaper by 1985 given average recovery rates. The model can be used to consider a broad range of wastepaper recovery and utilization situations and alternative economic growth rates.
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