Forecasts of Wastepaper Supply and Consumption In The United States To 1985

Authors

  • Joe P. Colletti
  • Joseph Buongiorno

Keywords:

Paper recycling, pulp and paper industry, forecasting, econometrics

Abstract

Recycling of wastepaper is a partial solution to the solid waste management problem and a source of fibrous material in the production of paper and board products. Unlike virgin fiber, wastepaper is the result of past paper and board consumption. To consider these important facts and others affecting wastepaper supply and consumption, a model of the paper and board industry inclusive of wastepaper recycling was constructed. The results of application of this model showed that wastepaper supply and consumption can vary widely depending on the future recovery rates and utilization levels of wastepaper by the paper industry. By assuming the most optimistic wastepaper recovery and utilization increases by 1985, a domestic wastepaper supply shortfall is forecasted. However, the most likely future wastepaper utilization scenario indicates a surplus of wastepaper by 1985 given average recovery rates. The model can be used to consider a broad range of wastepaper recovery and utilization situations and alternative economic growth rates.

References

Buongiorno, J. 1978. Income and price elasticities in the world demand for paper and paperboard. For. Sci. 24(2):231-246.nColletti, J. P. 1978. An econometric-linear programming model of the U.S. paper and paperboard industry, with particular attention to wastepaper recycling. Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Wisconsin-Madison. 169 pp.nDarnay, A., and W. E. Franklin. 1969. The role of packaging in solid waste management—1966 to 1976. Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Missouri. Public Health Service Publication No. 1955. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. 205 pp.nDarnay, A., and W. E. Franklin. 1971. The role of non-packaging paper in solid waste management—1966 to 1976. Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Missouri. Public Health Service Publication No. 2040. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. 76 pp.nDarnay, A., and W. E. Franklin. 1972. Salvage markets for materials in solid wastes. Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Missouri. Environmental Protection Publication SW-29C. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. 187 pp.nFranklin, W. E., Robert G. Hunt, and Sally T. Sharp. 1973. Paper recycling: the art of the possible 1970-1985. Midwest Research Institute for the Solid Waste Council of the Paper Industry. 181 pp.nGlassey, C. R., and V. K. Gupta. 1974. A linear programming analysis of paper recycling. Management Science 21(4):392-408.nHair, D. 1967. Use of regressions for projecting trends in demand for paper and board with projections of demand to 1985 for major grades of paper and board, wood pulp, and pulpwood. Forest Resource Report No. 18. USDA Forest Service.nLittle, A. D., Inc. 1976. Analysis of demand and supply for secondary fiber in the U.S. paper and paperboard industry. Vols. I-III for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 248 pp.nSlatin, B. 1972. Fiber requirements of the paper industry in the seventies and eighties. Tappi 55(4):499-505.nU.S. Environmental Protection Agnecy. 1976. Economic analysis of proposed and interim final effluent guidelines for: The bleached kraft, groundwood, sulfite soda, deinked and non-integrated paper sectors of the pulp and paper industry by A. D. Little, Inc. U.S. EPA-230/2-76-045, Washington, DC. 327 pp.nZabel, J. 1975. Fiber material flows in the U.S. pulp and paper manufacture. Unpublished rough draft, office report. USDA Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI. 12 pp.n

Downloads

Published

2007-06-27

Issue

Number 4 / Winter 1981

Section

Research Contributions

License

The copyright of an article published in Wood and Fiber Science is transferred to the Society of Wood Science and Technology (for U. S. Government employees: to the extent transferable), effective if and when the article is accepted for publication. This transfer grants the Society of Wood Science and Technology permission to republish all or any part of the article in any form, e.g., reprints for sale, microfiche, proceedings, etc. However, the authors reserve the following as set forth in the Copyright Law:

1. All proprietary rights other than copyright, such as patent rights.

2. The right to grant or refuse permission to third parties to republish all or part of the article or translations thereof. In the case of whole articles, such third parties must obtain Society of Wood Science and Technology written permission as well. However, the Society may grant rights with respect to Journal issues as a whole.

3. The right to use all or part of this article in future works of their own, such as lectures, press releases, reviews, text books, or reprint books.